Rush edition: US Tourism alert.
The $18 Billion Tourism Collapse - And Your Brand's Escape Route
America’s tourism industry is stalling… But your brand doesn’t have to.
Published April 13, 2025 — The Experience Design Almanac
A note from me: This emergency edition is for the 42% of you who are US-based experience designers, brand strategists, and hospitality leaders. Your carefully constructed summer programs, retail concepts, and experience designs are now at risk of missing their intended audience. What was meant to be a recovery summer may instead become a serious financial challenge.
The international visitors your brand has been counting on aren't coming this summer. In my professional assessment, this represents an imminent crisis for retail and hospitality experience design that requires immediate attention.
The data is stark and undeniable: Tourism Economics has slashed its forecast from 9% growth to a 5.5% decline, representing an $18 billion hit to the tourism and retail industries.
Canadian bookings to the US have plummeted 70%.
Border crossings are down 45% at some checkpoints.
Europeans aren't coming either—over half of Brits (53%), Germans (56%), Swedes (63%), and Danes (74%) now view America unfavorably, the lowest ratings since polling began in 2016.
The painful reality: if your strategy hinges on international visitors flowing through New York, Miami, LA, or other gateway cities, that strategy is now obsolete. Most of you have mere weeks to course-correct before seasonal budgets are locked.
So here's the question luxury, retail, and hospitality brands should be asking: How do we close an $18 billion experience gap?
The Gap: What Your Brand Is Facing Right Now
Based on the data available and my industry experience, most brands are sitting on summer plans that may no longer align with traveler behavior. Consider these documented shifts:
A March poll by Canadian market researcher Leger found 36% of Canadians who had planned trips to the United States had already canceled them
Air Canada has announced reductions in flights to US destinations, including Las Vegas
Mexican air travel to the US fell 6% in February compared to last year
Overall international arrivals dropped nearly 10% in March compared to 2024
The U.S. Travel Association has warned that even a 10% reduction in Canadian inbound travel could result in a $2.1 billion loss in spending, putting 140,000 hospitality jobs at risk
In my professional assessment, these shifts represent a significant misalignment between existing plans and market reality. If you've invested in tourist-focused experiences for this summer, the audience you anticipated may not materialize at the levels you expected.
The Solution: The U.S. Dream - On Tour.
If America is no longer the stage, it's time to move the show.
This is the perfect moment to bring the idea of America to your audiences abroad — not through stars and stripes, but through style, cuisine, and story.
Consider these gap-closing alternatives:
Pop-up diners in Seoul or Milan, inspired by 1960s Americana but fronted by your brand's aesthetic. Brunch served on branded ceramics. Staff uniforms styled in collaboration with a local atelier. QR-code menus linking to capsule drops or limited-time collections.
Resort takeovers in Phuket, Ibiza, or the Amalfi Coast with a twist: care free surfer culture; surfboards curated by your design team, Fourth of July reimagined with European DJs, guest rooms with fragrance diffusers bearing your summer scent. A little nostalgic, a little irreverent.
Atlanta meets Abu Dhabi — bring Southern hospitality and jazz club glamour to an unexpected location, with whisky tastings, soul food-inspired small plates, and a live-coded spatial fragrance that lingers like bourbon in the air.
Brands that win are those that understand their role is no longer just to sell. It's to stage moments that make people feel present, special, and part of something they can retell.
The Pain Points You're Likely Facing
Based on my conversations with industry leaders, these are the challenges I believe many of you are confronting:
Shifting traveler patterns: With significant drops in bookings and planned visits, experiences designed for international visitors will likely miss their target audience
Budget concerns: The decline in international tourism projected by Tourism Economics suggests Q3 projections may need adjustment
Spatial challenges: Investments in locations traditionally popular with tourists might not see expected returns
Experience dilution: In my professional opinion, designed environments feel different when visitor numbers drop significantly
As one example from our sources, Canadian Jodi Gibson canceled his family's planned Disney trip to Orlando and his Cleveland Browns season tickets.
”I just thought, you know, for the next four years, my money can be better spent somewhere where they don't have a leader trying to annex my country," he told USA Today.
This individual story reflects what I believe is happening on a much larger scale.
The Window of Opportunity: Market Shifts Create Alternatives
Here's what the data clearly shows:
While visitors are avoiding the US, they're not staying home. Alternative destinations are seeing measurable growth:
Hotels in Bermuda have reported a surge in Canadian bookings, with some predicting a 20% revenue increase
European rental properties have experienced a 32% jump in summer reservations from Canadians
Places like Ireland and Scotland are becoming increasingly popular alternatives
Brands That Could Lead the Way
Based on my understanding of the market, several brands are well-positioned to embrace this approach:
Coach could bring its retro Americana to European retail centers with a "Roadside Motel" concept — drive-in theatre, neon signs, and a loyalty programme that rewards "check-ins."
Ralph Lauren could develop pop-up ranch or polo experiences in markets showing tourism growth, featuring campfire dining, Western-wear fittings, and horse-themed storytelling.
Jellycat - though not US based, but very exposed to the market, could transform its international cafés with Route 66 themes, offering collectible items styled after classic Americana.
In my professional opinion, the brands that will thrive during this period will be those that understand their role is no longer just to sell. It's to stage moments that make people feel present, special, and part of something they can retell.
The Consequences of Inaction
Based on the trajectory shown in the data, I believe waiting to act could have several consequences:
Revenue impacts: The U.S. Travel Association has quantified that even a 10% reduction in Canadian travel alone could result in a $2.1 billion loss in spending
Missed alternative opportunities: While competitors secure positioning in growing markets like Bermuda, Ireland, and other destinations seeing increased bookings
Staff impacts: With Tourism Economics projecting a potential $18 billion reduction in tourism spending, hospitality and retail jobs may be affected
Professor Hicham Jaddoud of USC Bovard College warns in USA Today that lost travelers won't just be a short-term problem: "A shift toward alternative destinations was something that really kept me up at night... We have seen a noticeable shift among international travelers to go toward other destinations."
The Path Forward: Understanding the Emotional Landscape
As the data clearly shows, travel decisions are increasingly emotional. The documented reasons for travel cancellations include:
Safety concerns (mentioned by multiple travelers in the source material)
Political tensions (cited in the Tourism Economics report)
Treatment at borders (referenced in multiple countries' travel advisories)
Perception issues (reflected in the YouGov polling data)
In my professional assessment, these emotional factors will take significant time to resolve. However, this represents an opportunity for brands that understand how to adapt.
You can still leverage the allure of the American experience — but delivered in settings that today's travelers find more accessible and comfortable. Let people experience what they thought they'd find in the U.S., in places they're actually visiting.
Next Steps: Strategic Assessment
Given the severity of the shift in travel patterns documented above, I believe many US-based experience designers and hospitality brands need to rapidly reassess their summer strategies.
book now
I'm opening up two strategic assessment sessions next week specifically to address this challenge. These sessions are designed to help you:
Evaluate your current plans against the latest tourism data
Explore potential alternatives in markets showing increased activity
Develop a framework for resource allocation decisions
Create a communication approach for stakeholders
https://cal.com/kristoff-doria-di-cirie-gphvpm/15min
Written by Kristoff Doria di Cirie,
Founder of Insogni Studio, Experience Design Almanac
Contributing author to Retail in Focus Asia, The Luxury Society, and Jing Daily.